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2023 State of Origin

Pplspoet said:
I don’t know that selection bias is the problem. It’s more philosophy. The philosophy at the moment is that Panthers have won 2 comps, have been clearly ahead, so let’s pick a bunch of Panthers and they’ll carry that form into Origin.

It’s a flawed logic. It in no way resembles that Storm/QLD situation from a while back. Cronk, Slater and Smith were also the Australian spine. They were hands down the best players in their position. You can’t say that of anyone in that Panthers side other than maybe Cleary (maybe). Luai is probably equal with or behind Walker and Hynes, Api has probably been with/behind Cook, Yeo and Murray are a toss of a coin (though with Murray’s versatility putting him on an edge is fine).

The second piece of logic is, champions can over come form and win you Origin games if you stick with them. This is Tedesco, Turbo mainly.

This comes off as often as it doesn’t. And usually less so for NSW.

Lastly there’s a sentiment that a player like Cody Walker isn’t ‘Origin built’. That’s a sentiment that is much more NSW than QLD.

Matty Bowen isn’t an Origin legend if he’s from NSW. They don’t value what a player like Cody provides. It’s not part of their understanding of what Origin football is.

If they pick Cody, it’s rubs NSW brains the wrong way and there’s a sentiment of ‘go on, prove you should be here’. Whereas for other it would be ‘we’ve got your back, go play footy.’
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I can understand the logic behind picking a spine that plays together. Cohesion in the spine is probably the most important thing for a team. The problem NSW have is that the Panthers connection in Api, Yeo, Cleary and Luai aren't used to being overcalled and in that NSW side you have Tedesco and also sometimes Cam Murray looking to ball play as well. Too many chiefs... The result is what you see the other night. Cleary probably took the line on half as much as what he normally would and it seemed as though he felt he had to shuffle the ball out a lot more than he normally would.

If you're going to pick a mainly Panthers spine and play a Panthers type game plan, if you pick other players around those guys then they also need to be complementary to that plan.

Cam Murray could play that Yeo role at 13 but I don't think you should pick both him and Yeo and play them at the same time.

Tedesco is so far off the way Penrith play it's ridiculous. He is the opposite of Edwards. They run about as far as each other in a match but you will rarely ever see Edwards at first receiver on 3rd or 4th tackle within the opposition 20. I doubt he over calls his halves at all.

I can understand point 2... If Tommy Turbo for example, hits peak form he is a genuine match winner. Will be interesting if he is picked for game two though as he was nowhere near peak on Wednesday night. I would think that you only give someone one shot at that sort of redemption ark. Given how far out of form he looked the other night, he should now have to prove himself in 1st grade before he is picked again.

Point 3 I don't think anyone really believes that. I honestly think they just trot out that excuse when they don't want to pick someone and don't have a valid reason
 
C'mon this is Fittler we're talking about here. He'll stick with his old stagers and probably drop players like TPJ , Hudson and Hynes. He'll keep his Penrith spine together and if NSW manage to win the media will again be calling him a brilliant coach. This is what Origin has become and just a continuation of Laurie Daley's pathetic legacy. Picking coaches with no bloody idea.
 
Don't understand why people are calling edwards to replace teddy.

Almost a straight swap, both run lots of metres, big deal...
 
The hallmark of this current NSW era is coming up with left-field solutions to problems of their own making.

QLD just keep it simple.

Case in point: Walsh and Tabuai-Fidow are in terrific form, Ponga and Gagai are not. So they selected the in-form players.

It's not rocket surgery.
 
If QLD win this year, the fact they’ll have navigated the re-establishment of their side post the golden era, with a series record of 3-3, as NSW were thinking it was their time in the sun, will be very… QLD-like.
 
I’m surprised that there been no mention of the deliberate kick to the face by Walsh when he kept for his first catch🤔
 
Another point on the Penrith Blues…..

Penrith win games with their defence. When the team that you are playing against all of a sudden are the best players in the competition, it is a much more difficult. As good a team as they are, their attack is only average.

To simplify,

at Club level:
Defence - Outstanding
Attack - Average

At Rep level:
Defence - Good
Attack - Poor
 
yobbo84 said:
The hallmark of this current NSW era is coming up with left-field solutions to problems of their own making.

QLD just keep it simple.

Case in point: Walsh and Tabuai-Fidow are in terrific form, Ponga and Gagai are not. So they selected the in-form players.

It's not rocket surgery.
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They usually pick in form players, NSW picks on past glories, club politics, bias, easily led by media, ego's etc

Do you think Billy slater cares how many storm players get picked?

Cos I'm sure people like Brandy are trying to get as many panthers in the team as possible.
 
Would prefer a new halves combo of Hynes-Walker. Rep teams need to be fluent and functional in order to get the ball out to the wings efficiently in order to be a threat across the park. Qld did this. NSW currently have too many ball hogs going themselves in Tedesco but also the Penrith duo. Luai's dancing about like an amphetamine addict with their pants on fire might cut in the occasional NRL game against disorganised defence but not at rep level against a well drilled defence.

Won't happen (unless injuries are kind to us) but my NSW backline would be

Turbo
JAC (left side)
Trell (left)
Campbell
To'o
Cody
Hynes

We'd see some expansive attack then.

p.s Capt and starting lock - Cam Murray!
 
captainsutto said:
I’m surprised that there been no mention of the deliberate kick to the face by Walsh when he kept for his first catch🤔
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Straight out of the Minichiello / Slater playbook. No questions were asked about their similar actions.
 
DKOR said:
I can understand the logic behind picking a spine that plays together. Cohesion in the spine is probably the most important thing for a team. The problem NSW have is that the Panthers connection in Api, Yeo, Cleary and Luai aren't used to being overcalled and in that NSW side you have Tedesco and also sometimes Cam Murray looking to ball play as well. Too many chiefs... The result is what you see the other night. Cleary probably took the line on half as much as what he normally would and it seemed as though he felt he had to shuffle the ball out a lot more than he normally would.

If you're going to pick a mainly Panthers spine and play a Panthers type game plan, if you pick other players around those guys then they also need to be complementary to that plan.

Cam Murray could play that Yeo role at 13 but I don't think you should pick both him and Yeo and play them at the same time.

Tedesco is so far off the way Penrith play it's ridiculous. He is the opposite of Edwards. They run about as far as each other in a match but you will rarely ever see Edwards at first receiver on 3rd or 4th tackle within the opposition 20. I doubt he over calls his halves at all.

I can understand point 2... If Tommy Turbo for example, hits peak form he is a genuine match winner. Will be interesting if he is picked for game two though as he was nowhere near peak on Wednesday night. I would think that you only give someone one shot at that sort of redemption ark. Given how far out of form he looked the other night, he should now have to prove himself in 1st grade before he is picked again.

Point 3 I don't think anyone really believes that. I honestly think they just trot out that excuse when they don't want to pick someone and don't have a valid reason
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If you want to pick a spine that knows each others game then the following could/would work just as well as the so called Penrith connection.

1. Latrell
6. Cody
7. Reynolds
9. Cook

Throw in Murray at 13, Graham at centre and Koala on an edge and you have the nucleus of your attack there.

Guys like JAC, To'o etc could slot in easily on the back of that.
 
Queensland Rugby league issued with breach notice: https://www.nrl.com/news/2023/06/02/queensland-rugby-league-issued-with-breach-notice/

'Makes me sick' - Braith's sad admission as ugly moment exposes Blues' biggest flaw: https://www.nrl.com/news/2023/06/02/queensland-rugby-league-issued-with-breach-notice/

'Big chance' - Latrell to answer Blues' SOS as Origin return gets green light: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/st...t/news-story/d2709b5983209a9ffd0b5fab672b27f2

'He'll go down with the ship' - Gus backs Freddy to pick and stick with job on the line: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/st...e/news-story/ad2e439e01d8d2501f55a4ea8b4ca004
 
Luckily we have the bye for the next Origin, and then don’t play till Sunday at Accor.

Then when we lose players for the Dogs in Round 19, Havili, Moale, and Tom Burgess should all be back. Meaning you can cover the loss of Murray and Arrow better than we did the other night.

Let’s hope the Blues win game 2 and they keep the side they have now (minimal Bunnies) for game 3. I guess Koloamatangi is a target regardless if he comes back from injury well the next 2 weeks.
 
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