Well…here we go. Last round of the season and it’s all on the line.
This article from the SMH gives a good explanation of the many moving parts.
FINALS SAY: THE BEST AND WORST OUTCOME FOR YOUR TEAM
The Roosters, Rabbitohs and Cowboys are all playing sudden-death footy, but it’s Brisbane and Penrith who hold the key to their finals hopes, write Dan Walsh and Adam Pengilly.
The top eight won’t be decided until the very last whistle of the regular season, but it will be the resurgence of Brisbane as an NRL powerhouse that dictates the finals fortunes of several rivals.
Twenty-four hours before the Roosters and Rabbitohs square off with their seasons on the line, an under-strength Broncos outfit can sew up the club’s first minor premiership in 23 years with a win over Melbourne. Brisbane are already without Adam Reynolds (calf) and Pat Carrigan (foot) for the Storm clash while Kotoni Staggs is likely to join them through suspension, but a victory on Thursday would put a first-place finish beyond Penrith’s reach.
Which is where it gets interesting, and brings the ninthplaced Cowboys into play. If the Panthers can’t play for a minor premiership, several stars are unlikely to play and North Queensland are suddenly looking good for an upset out west.
Along with the Roosters and Rabbitohs on Friday night, it’s sudden-death stakes for the Cowboys either way. And after all that, there’s Ricky Stuart’s Raiders. They get to watch the entire round play out before Sunday afternoon’s clash against Cronulla, which could easily be another win-or-bust proposition. Here is every top-eight scenario in play in round 27.
1. Broncos (42, +224) Best finish : 1st Worst finish : 2nd The simplest equation of them all. Win against Melbourne and the J.J. Giltinan Shield is heading to Red Hill. Lose and Penrith still get a crack at keeping it, but the Broncos have still earned a guaranteed home final and second chance once the post-season starts.
2. Panthers (40, +315) Best finish : 1st Worst finish : 3rd Penrith’s peerless points differential has them still in the minor premiership race if Brisbane stumble on Thursday. And even if first place is taken off the table, it would still take a 153-point swing on for and against for the Warriors to sneak ahead of them into the top two. 3. Warriors (38, +148) Best finish : 2nd Worst finish :
4th The Warriors will need a miracle to shift Penrith from a secondplace finish . And it would be a proper rugby league upset for them to cough up third spot by going down to the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday. 4. Storm (36, +158) Best finish : 3rd Worst finish : 4th Home and hosed for the top four. Melbourne love a trip to Suncorp and have one of the best head-tohead records of any team against Brisbane. Knocking off the Broncos opens up a climb into third place if the Warriors lose.
5. Knights (33, +155) Best finish : 5th Worst finish : 6th Flying into the finals but won’t have much to play for next week. They can’t make the top four and have already sewn up a home final . Even if they lose to the Dragons, the lowest Newcastle will finish is sixth given the Sharks and Raiders play each other.
6. Sharks (32, +104) Best finish : 5th Worst finish : Miss finals Cronulla missing the finals requires Canberra rattling up a cricket score on them, the Cowboys doing the same against Penrith (we’re talking 50-point margins) and the Rabbitohs downing the Roosters. An unlikely Knights loss to the Red V would keep fifth spot in play for Cronulla.
7. Raiders (32, -119 ) Best finish : 5th Worst finish : Miss finals Canberra’s finals spot will be sealed if the Cowboys can’t beat the Panthers. But the pressure ramps up if North Queensland prevail; the Raiders will need at least a draw against Cronulla to make the eight due to their poor points differential. In the unlikely event the Dragons beat the Knights, they can still finish as high as fifth with a win over the Sharks.
8. Rabbitohs (30, +73) Best finish : 7th Worst finish : Miss finals The equation is simple: win and you’re basically in, lose and it’s season over. No matter what happens in any other match, South Sydney almost certainly scrape through with victory against the Roosters. Then, the only way they can be eliminated is if the Cowboys beat the Panthers with a winning margin 37 points or more greater than the Rabbitohs’ margin over the Roosters and the Raiders get at least a draw against the Sharks.
9. Cowboys (30, +36) Best finish : 7th Worst finish : Miss finals Has there ever been a coach sweating on an opposition teamsheet as much as Todd Payten? Regardless, the Cowboys must beat Penrith in their own backyard to stay alive. If they do, they’ll be guaranteed a top eight spot as long as either the Roosters beat the Rabbitohs or Cronulla beat Canberra.
10. Roosters (30, -38 ) Best finish : 7th Worst finish : Miss finals Who would have thought the Roosters could even be in this conversation six weeks ago? But here we are. They need a win over the Rabbitohs on Friday night; otherwise it’s all over. Even then, they still need one of the following: Panthers to beat the Cowboys or Sharks to beat the Raiders.
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