This is something I’ve kinda felt might be a thing for a while.
So with the new season coming up, I figured it was worth checking the actual results.
Because 2024 was such a disaster, let’s park that for a second and instead just look at 2022 and 2023. The period post-Wayne, but while we were still a serious footy team and with most of the same senior players that are still at the club (we can come back to 2024).
In 2022 we:
- Won 14 games and lost 10
- Of those 14 wins, 1 was by a margin of 7 points or less
- Of those 10 losses, 5 were by a margin of 7 points or less
- 12 of our 14 wins were by 12 points or more
So right there, that essentially backs up that feeling that I don’t recall us winning many games where the result was in the balance with minutes to play.
TLDR: We had a 17% win rate in games where the final margin was 7 points or less.
In 2023 we:
- Won 12 games and lost 12
- Of those 12 wins, 2 were by a margin of 7 points or less (a golden point win vs Manly, and the miracle finish vs the Panthers in Penrith where we scored on the buzzer in spectacular fashion)
- Of those 12 losses, 5 were by a margin of 7 points or less
- 9 of our 12 wins were by 12 points or more
So again, pretty much the same pattern presenting in those numbers too.
TLDR: The extra win gives us a win percentage of 29% in games where the final margin was 7 points or less (across both seasons the combined percentage is 23%).
I won’t go into 2024 because dusturbing that data feels like it could unleash a long-dormant plague. Suffice to say, 1 of our 7 wins was by 7 points or less (against the Dogs).
Now, what this all means is entirely up for interpretation and discussion.
Maybe it’s nothing.
Maybe it’s a good thing. Perhaps those games we lost by narrow margins we actually did well to get that close, and the games we won, we won easily.
Maybe it says when ‘we’re on’ we’re really on. If we have you’re number, we’ll win by 2 tries or more.
Maybe it just shows we control games better when we have a bit of a scoreboard buffer.
Maybe it says we have a cultural approach of ‘when the going gets tough, we look to next week’.
Interested in people’s thoughts.
I haven’t looked at the results from Wayne’s last stint, but the team is so different now (post Reyno, Gagai and Sua) that it feels somewhat unrelated.
Yobbo, I’m sure you’ll have some statistical insight into whether this is a relevant pattern or not.
So with the new season coming up, I figured it was worth checking the actual results.
Because 2024 was such a disaster, let’s park that for a second and instead just look at 2022 and 2023. The period post-Wayne, but while we were still a serious footy team and with most of the same senior players that are still at the club (we can come back to 2024).
In 2022 we:
- Won 14 games and lost 10
- Of those 14 wins, 1 was by a margin of 7 points or less
- Of those 10 losses, 5 were by a margin of 7 points or less
- 12 of our 14 wins were by 12 points or more
So right there, that essentially backs up that feeling that I don’t recall us winning many games where the result was in the balance with minutes to play.
TLDR: We had a 17% win rate in games where the final margin was 7 points or less.
In 2023 we:
- Won 12 games and lost 12
- Of those 12 wins, 2 were by a margin of 7 points or less (a golden point win vs Manly, and the miracle finish vs the Panthers in Penrith where we scored on the buzzer in spectacular fashion)
- Of those 12 losses, 5 were by a margin of 7 points or less
- 9 of our 12 wins were by 12 points or more
So again, pretty much the same pattern presenting in those numbers too.
TLDR: The extra win gives us a win percentage of 29% in games where the final margin was 7 points or less (across both seasons the combined percentage is 23%).
I won’t go into 2024 because dusturbing that data feels like it could unleash a long-dormant plague. Suffice to say, 1 of our 7 wins was by 7 points or less (against the Dogs).
Now, what this all means is entirely up for interpretation and discussion.
Maybe it’s nothing.
Maybe it’s a good thing. Perhaps those games we lost by narrow margins we actually did well to get that close, and the games we won, we won easily.
Maybe it says when ‘we’re on’ we’re really on. If we have you’re number, we’ll win by 2 tries or more.
Maybe it just shows we control games better when we have a bit of a scoreboard buffer.
Maybe it says we have a cultural approach of ‘when the going gets tough, we look to next week’.
Interested in people’s thoughts.
I haven’t looked at the results from Wayne’s last stint, but the team is so different now (post Reyno, Gagai and Sua) that it feels somewhat unrelated.
Yobbo, I’m sure you’ll have some statistical insight into whether this is a relevant pattern or not.
